2023: Approaching new era of defections, realignments Politics –

OLALEKAN OSIADE reports that the two major political parties; the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), may witness defections ahead of the 2023 general elections, as there are growing fears of political realignments.

Since the ‘birth’ of the Fourth Republic in 1999, defections have become the normal antics employed by politicians to achieve their aims, when it comes to power seeking. Though defections had been in the polity prior to this time, it had been witnessed more since the return to democracy in 1999.

Ahead of any major election, as seen during the 2011, 2015 and 2019 general elections, the ploy becomes the order of the day. But to most of the defectors, cross-carpeting is nothing extraordinary as long as they achieve their aim.

The scramble for the 2023 presidential ticket is no doubt the latest reason for new alignments as the urge to grab power is pitching politicians against themselves. Though there are indications that some of those interested in the top job have started oiling their political machineries, it is too early to determine those that will eventually arrive in the same boat.

In 2015, the likes of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Senator Bukola Saraki left the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to join forces with others in the opposition and formed the All Progressives Congress (APC), in order to hijack power from the then office holders, and they succeeded in enthroning President Muhammadu Buhari.

In 2019, over 100 federal and state legislators, including the then Senate President and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Saraki and Yakub Dogara respectively, defected from the ruling APC to the leading opposition party, the PDP, but failed to repeat the 2015 feat in 2019.

The duo led many senators and members of the House of Representatives out of the APC while some governors, such as, Aminu Tambuwwal of Sokoto State, Samuel Ortom of Benue State and AbdulFattah Ahmed of Kwara State led many of their states assemblies’ speakers and legislators into the PDP.

The first significant move was when Buhari’s former ally, Buba Galadima, announced a breakaway faction of the ruling party called the Reformed APC (RAPC). Barely a month later, many people followed, crossing to the main opposition party, which led to an alliance of 38 parties known as the Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP).

Ortom left the APC, citing the Federal Government’s failure to address the conflict between herdsmen and farmers, while Ahmed returned to the PDP after criticising the Buhari administration for inefficiency. On his part, Tambuwal said he was frustrated with the ruling party’s internal discord but he was later seen to be harbouring a presidential ambition that could not be realised in the APC because Buhari was going for a second term.

Just like it happened in 2015 and 2019 general elections, the scheming ahead of the 2023 polls has began with nocturnal meetings and internal wrangling at the state level. The scheming that will lead to defections among the political class started with the political power play in Edo and Ondo states, where some members of the APC and the PDP had been showing traits of defection.

Though, such political moves will not come as a shock to many, having witnessed similar occurrences in the past, it is however set to cause row and tension in the polity as usual.

In this dispensation, major political stakeholders in the South-West zone are already firming up plans to float a new political party. It is believed the proposed party would drive the push by the South West for the presidency in 2023.

The arrangement, according to inside sources is expected to be a realignment of major bigwigs in the zone, as there is said to be a consensus to work in unison.

A member of the steering committee that is behind the moves to gather opinions of all interest revealed that a think-tank team for harmonisation of ideas has commenced consultations across the zone.

The member of the Lagos State House of Assembly added that the feedback indicates that a new political party is in the offing, saying that some Yoruba politicians and leaders of thought set up the team.

“The idea is to see how to protecting the interest of the zone because the other zones, including the South East and the North are also not leaving anything to chance”, he noted.

Among those blazing the trail of defection in the current dispensation are the former chairmen of PDP in Kano and Imo states, Rabiu Sulaiman-Bichi and Charles Ezekwem respectively, who had recently defected to the APC.

While Sulaiman-Bichi defected to the APC, two days after the Supreme Court upheld the election of Governor Abdullahi Ganduje of Kano State, Ezekwem, on his part, made his decision to resign from the PDP known through a letter sent to the party’s national chairman, Uche Secondus.

Ezekwem said he had to resign due to the prevailing circumstances in the state chapter of the party.

He wrote: ”In view of the prevailing circumstances within my party vis-a-vis my present standing as the state chairman of the PDP in Imo State and after due consultation with my family, and with the approval of my supporters, I hereby tender my resignation as PDP Chairman Imo State; also as a member of the party in the ward of Okigwe LGA which has been duly communicated to the ward chairman.”

Defections in Imo

Not quite a week after, the Speaker of the Imo State House of Assembly, Collins Chiji, defected to the APC with seven other lawmakers. Governor Hope Uzodinma later met them, assuring them of his support and cooperation.

Noting that most of the defectors were founding members of the APC who left recently as a result of the crisis that rocked the party in the state before the general elections, the governor commended the Speaker, Rt. Hon. Chiji Collins, for placing his trust in him and towing the path of progress.

“We will do our best to strengthen the party and take the message of this party to our neighbouring states. By so doing, we would have completely re-integrated South-East into the national polity.

“As political leaders, we have a responsibility to go out to ensure that what belongs to our people from the national table comes to our people”, Uzodinma said.

What the law says

Some lawyers had earlier approached the court, insisting that there had been a verdict on defection by the Supreme Court, in the case of federal lawmaker from Ondo State while others are of the opinion that the Supreme Court ruling cannot be used to justify the present situation.

According to Section 68 (1) of the 1999 Constitution:

“A member of the Senate or House of Representatives shall vacate his seat in the House of which he is a member if – (g) being a person whose election to the House was sponsored by a political party, he becomes a member of another political party before the expiration of the period for which that House was elected; provided that his membership of the latter political party is not as a result of a division in the political party of which he was previously a member or of a merger of two or more political parties or factions by one of which he was previously sponsored.”

But opposing views have also pointed to the Supreme Court ruling in the case of Atiku versus the Federal Government, in which the former VP challenged the powers of the then president, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo to remove him from office.

In that case, the apex court had pronounced that a sitting VP could be in any political party different from that of his principal, a decision that infuriated the late Chief Gani Fawehinmi, who warned that the court was setting a very dangerous precedent.

In the midst of the back and forth argument, many analysts have argued that some of the defectors are moving from their original platforms for selfish gains, while others likened defections to vices such as rigging, vote-buying and ballot-snatching.

As opined by a political analyst, Mike Labode, many Nigerian politicians are not known to be too impatient when tired of a party and in dire need of a change.

He said: “This was what played out in 2015, when the then opposition APC uprooted the PDP out of power to become the ruling party”.

But when reminded that the APC had not been in power for long, having been in the saddle for just five years as against the PDP that ruled for 16 years, he was quick to point out that many Nigerians have been clamouring for a paradigm shift, irrespective of the party in power and notwithstanding the number of years it has spent.

“Some people were blaming the PDP that the country got worse during its 16 years rule, but we must also point accusing fingers at the APC for the present woes of the country”

Alleging the broom-symbol party is not living up to the change mantra with which it rode to power, Labode explained that the dismal performances by both parties made them different sides of the same coin.

“This is why many Nigerians are seeking fresh options, which can take power away from the two giants, there is the need for a third force now.

“The alliances were hurriedly formed in 2019 and many big names were flaunted, like Obasanjo and the ADC. The expectations were high but what became of the whole thing?” He asked.

He recalled how new parties nearly emerged in 2019, with no less a caliber of Obasanjo leading the first set of coalition under the aegis of Coalition of Nigeria Movement (CNM).

“Obasanjo was able to bring his loyalists together, people like a former governor of Osun State, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola were put into what we thought was a formidable union, such as the ADC”, he said.

“We need a good political party, to which well-meaning Nigerians can belong. It must be a good coalition for democracy, to salvage and redeem our country,” he said.

With just three years to the historic election, the possibility of an alliance just like it happened in 2015, is not in doubt but the main contenders for the elections remain the PDP and the
APC.