2023: It’s a three horse-race in Bauchi

Adeleye Kunle reports

The All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) are getting set to square up for a rematch in Bauchi State. Correspondent DAVID ADENUGA X- rays the chances of the three top contenders who emerged as flag bearers of their parties
Fifteen candidates of different political parties emerged from the governorship primaries held in Bauchi State recently. They are Hassan Kalid of the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP), Auwal Adamu of the Allied Peoples’ Movement (APM), Governor Bala Mohammed of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), Senator Halliru Dauda of the Jika New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Abubakar Ibrahim of the Labour Party (LP), Abubakar Saddique of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Umaru Nuhu Tilde of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Umar Farug Ahmed of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP).

Others are Saleh Auwalu Dahiru of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Usman Dankyrana Mustapha of the Action Democratic Party (ADP), Musa Magazine of the Action Alliance (AA), Ahmed Magaji Saleh of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Saleh Sulaiman of the National Rescue Movement (NRM), Kabiru Abdulhamid Shuwa of the Action Peoples’ Party (APP) and Umar Garba Aliyu of the Young Progressive Party (YPP).

But, pundits believe the battle is between three contenders, while the rest are only in the race to be relevant.

Bala Mohammed:

The next governorship election in Bauchi State may not be a walkover for Governor Bala Mohammed, who is the candidate of the PDP, as anticipated due to the emergence of Air Marshal Sadique Abubakar as the candidate of the APC, and Senator Haliru Jika of the NNPP.

Mohammed who is from Alkaleri Local Government Area in the Bauchi South Senatorial District had to fall back on his re-election bid, after losing the PDP presidential ticket. Pundits believe he might sail, based on the incumbency factor and the giant strides he has recorded in the last three years in terms of infrastructure development. But, he has to keep an eye on the candidate of the APC and the NNPP, who are going into the race as underdogs.

For those familiar with Bauchi politics, the political climate cannot be predicted. But, what cannot be disputed is that Bauchi people can be stubborn and very cold. Those attributes played out in the ousting of the immediate past governor, Mohammed Abubakar, who political commentators believe would have won the election if he had not taken the people for granted.

More so, an alignment between the immediate past Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara and Sadique can also not be ruled out at this period when the former speaker has a score to settle with the governor. Dogara’s defection to the PDP on the eve of the last general elections assisted Mohammed to oust the immediate past Governor Mohammed Abubakar, who contested the election on the platform of the APC. Before the election, Abubakar had described Dogara as a lightweight politician, whose influence would not impact his re-election. But, he was taught a political lesson afterwards.

The supplementary election that took place in Tafawa Balewa Local Government provided an opportunity for Dogara to take revenge, as he ensured that Abubakar, whom he described as a non-indigene of Bauchi State, did not return to power in 2019. Dogara later endorsed and campaigned for the incumbent Bala Mohammed.

A similar scenario might play out between Dogara and Mohammed who later parted ways before the governor celebrated one year in office. The former speaker had accused the incumbent governor of mismanagement while alleging that he has derailed from his electioneering promises; a development he said forced him to return to the APC.

Shortly after Dogara returned to the APC, there was a battle of supremacy between him and Governor Mohammed. This was during the Dass State Constituency by-election in December 2020 to fill the void caused by the assassination of Musa Mante Baraza of the APC. It was obvious that the by-election was to test the governor’s political strength against that of the former speaker.

However, it was perhaps the shocking defeat of the PDP in the by-election that convinced political watchers that the APC remains the party to beat in the state. Aside from Dogara, the constant jabs by the governor on the Minister for Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management, and Social Development, Sadiya Umar Farouq, a wife to the APC candidate, Sadique, suggests that there is a strong rivalry between the two sides.

Mohammed who boasted that he is not afraid of federal might while taking a swipe at the minister alleged that over N1trilion of the Federal Government’s Social Investment Programme (SIP), managed by the spouse of the APC governorship candidate, has been siphoned by political office holders under President Muhammad Buhari’s nose.

The governor who stated this when he flagged off the distribution of the Economic Empowerment Programme (EEP) in Misau Local Government Area in January alleged that the SIP, which was initiated to uplift and promote the living standard of Nigerians below the poverty line, has been clandestinely corrupted to satisfy the whims and caprices of APC big wigs.

On another occasion during the distribution of cars to traditional rulers, also in January, Mohammed attacked the APC, saying he is campaigning against “bandits, hooligans, those who stole public funds, who think they have gotten a place to relax and stretch their legs at a place that doesn’t belong to them”.

In his words: “We are only afraid of God. It is only the fear of God that restrains us; that’s what makes us afraid and not that of any man. I want you to go to every nook and cranny whether we (PDP) are there or not; because we have heard of the plans they are making to deceive and to lie to the people by giving them Federal Government forms with fake promises.

“They did many things in the past; they should show us one person from whom they freely helped; they should show us any Bauchi person they gave a contract to besides their families and cronies. We are different from them and that difference is like day and night.”

However, some observers believe that the governor has an edge over his challengers. For instance, a political analyst, Danlami Babatanko, said Mohammed has an edge over his main rival, Sadique “because the APC is now a weak party due to the recent defections of aggrieved aspirants which have dealt a huge blow to the party”.

He said: “So many people consider Sadique to be a novice; judging by his behaviour, which suggests that he is unprepared. He is too silent and does not carry others along. I think these are the advantages Bala (Mohammed) has over him. The so-called federal might may not work for the APC this time around, because the major factor that produced former Governor Abubakar was Buhari’s tsunami in 2015. But, as you can see, Buhari is finishing his tenure.”

Though, Babatanko pointed out that the only threat to Mohammed’s re-election is the growing concern over the new Electoral Act. His words: “There are fears that INEC may exclude the governor from the list of candidates due to the clause in the act that questions his candidacy because he participated in two primaries (the PDP presidential primary and the party’s Bauchi State governorship primary) or that perhaps the opposition will use it against him after being elected by taking him to court.”

But, when contacted, the Bauchi State PDP chairman, Alhaji Hamza Akuyam dismissed such fears, saying the new Electoral Act would not jeopardize the governor’s chances of being re-elected despite participating in two primaries. The chairman said: “As far as the PDP is concerned, we have no problem. The law is clear that anybody who participated and became a candidate is not an aspirant. Remember, we had only one candidate in the Secretary to the State Government (SSG) that earlier participated in the primary but later withdrew before the INEC deadline elapsed. So, there is no cause for alarm.”

Haliru Jika:

Senator Jika was elected to represent the Darazo/Ganjuwa Constituency in the House of Representatives and he served two terms between 2007 and 2015.

In the last general election, he was elected a senator to represent Bauchi Central on the platform of the APC. A grassroots politician, he was once the speaker of the Bauchi State House of Assembly.

The senator later emerged as the candidate of the NNPP, following his defection to the party, after he failed to secure the APC governorship ticket.

Pundits believe that Jika is a candidate who can give Mohammed a run for his money, considering his political experience. One of such pundits said: “He is a very strong candidate. He is a determined and committed politician. He has experience in politics. Had it been Jika is the APC flag bearer, by now Mohamed would have been planning to pack his loads from the Government House.”

He added, however, that the only stumbling block for Jika may be the fact that he is not from the Katagum zone. Jika was one of the aggrieved aspirants from the APC who left the party after losing a bid to pick the party’s governorship ticket ahead of next year’s general elections.

He said: “Unarguably, Jika is said to be a material in the party and politics, as they say, is a game of numbers; he has thousands of supporters across the state that would eventually help the party to wrestle power from the opposition. Banking on the popularity of the NNPP, Jika plans to cash in on Rabiu Kwankwaso’s popularity as the main actor and presidential candidate of the NNPP. But, you know, Katagum people won’t vote for him, except those in Bauchi Central and Bachi South.”

Sadique Abubakar:

Sadique Abubakar is the former Chief of Air Staff. He is from the Katagum zone, Bauchi North Senatorial District, and is widely regarded as a political novice in Bauchi because he has not held any political office yet.

But, Abubakar is banking on the fact that he is from the Katagum zone in Bauchi North, which has not produced a governor for the past 23 years.

Bauchi South has dominated the governorship in the last 23 years, taking advantage of its population and the number of local government areas. All the governors since 1999 on the platform of both the PDP and the APC are from the region. They include Ahmadu Adamu Muazu (PDP), Isa Yuguda (APC), Mohammed Abubakar (APC), and the incumbent Governor Bala Mohammed (PDP).

The bone of contention is that the people of the northern zone, comprising Misau, Jama’re and Katagum Emirate Councils are not happy with the fact that the only time the region produced a governor was 43 years ago when Abubakar Tatari Ali became the first civilian governor between 1979 and 1983. But, his tenure was thwarted by the military coup on December 31, 1983, which brought General Muhammadu Buhari to power as a military dictator.

Sources in the APC believe the Minister of Education, Mallam Adamu Adamu who is from Katagum is solidly behind the emergence of Sadique as the party’s flag bearer. Another source told the Nation only disunity among the people of Katagum would rob them of the opportunity of producing the next governor because they have gained sympathy from the people of Bauchi State after being sidelined for a long period.

But, Sadique has a huge task before him. The gale of defections that rocked the APC, following the governorship primary that produced him has weakened the party. Many of those who defected from the party are seasoned politicians that would have joined forces with him to unseat Mohammed if they had stayed back.

Aggrieved members like the immediate deputy governor, Audu Sule Katagum left the party based on an alleged lack of fairness and transparency and, above all, an allegation of being sidelined from the scheme of the party’s activities.

Another powerful stakeholder that defected is Senator Halliru Dauda Jika who penned his resignation from the APC after losing a bid to pick the party’s governorship ticket ahead of next year’s general elections. Jika has since emerged as the NNPP flag bearer. Yakubu Shehu Abdullahi also left the APC as well to the PRP.

Similarly, Senator Lawal Yahaya Gumau, an incumbent senator serving the southern part of Bauchi State in the upper legislative chamber left the party immediately after losing the APC ticket to return recontest for his seat. He alleged that there was a gang-up by some elements within the party to scheme him out.

The latest politician to dump the APC in Bauchi is Mohamed Aliyu, popularly known as Sonya. Aliyu is passionately loved by youths and he had used such influence to win votes for the party in the past. His defection from the party is a big setback.

A source said: “The Bauchi APC, therefore, has a lot of work to do. The likes of Dr. Musa Babayo and Nura Manu Soro, Capt Bala Jibrin, and other top members of the party need to be given a sense of belonging to wrestle power from the PDP. Adamu Adamu, the Minister of Education also needs to unite the aggrieved members to help Sadique win the election.

“But, anything can happen. Next year’s general elections can spring up surprises. Nobody can predict what may happen. You know Bauchi people are peculiar; they love to try things. You know they like to fight the government in power, especially when they are not benefiting anything from it.

“They can still support Sadique if he carries every member along. Despite his weaknesses, he still has sympathy for poor people. He just needs to wake up from his sleep and do the right thing.”