2023 Presidential election: How Kogi voters will decide APC, PDP, LP, others fate

With less than one week for Nigerians to decide their next President, it is becoming more interesting and suspense-packed in Kogi State, especially as the incumbent, President Muhammadu Buhari won’t be on the ballot.

The question on the lips of many Kogites, is- “who succeeds President Muhammadu Buhari?” What will be the voting pattern across the three Senatorial districts, especially among the three leading Presidential candidates- APC, PDP and Labour Party? Who says what to influence the people to vote for any of the candidates?

Many Nigerians have declared the 2023 Presidential election as a make or mar process that would determine the unity and sovereignty of the country. They are of the view that any decision taken by the electorates, either for or against the leading candidates, will clearly define the fortunes of Nigeria in the next four to eight years.

In Kogi State, the voting pattern of the electorates will vary.

The State is divided into three Senatorial districts, West, (Okun), East, (Igala), and Central, (Ebira).

No doubt, the State is currently governed by the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC), but there might be a twist in the expectations of the people as it concerns the presidential candidate who would carry the day.

Kogi West Voting Pattern

The voting pattern in the Western part of Kogi State might go in a different direction compared to what happened in 2019. Political bigwigs, such as the Speaker, Kogi State House of Assembly, Secretary to the State Government, Dr Falashade Arike Ayoade, Commissioner for Finance, Hon. Asiru, Commissioner for Environment, Hon. Victor Omofaiye, serving Senator Smart Adeyemi and many more are members of the ruling APC, and have great influence in Kogi West. However, they have the likes of former Deputy Governor, Arch. Yomi Awoniyi, a lawmaker who represented Kogi West, Senator Tunde Ogbeha, Senator Dino Melaye, Sam Abenemi to contend with.

Since 1999 till date, the opposition PDP has gained many votes from this axis. Despite the outcome of the 2019 general election, the APC could not win convincingly as the people of the West have continued to show their loyalty to the PDP owing to the fact that they have not seen much impact from the ruling party.

According to some political analysts, most of the political appointees under Governor Yahaya Bello-led administration cannot deliver for their party in Kogi West. They are not seen as grassroots politicians who can convincingly woo voters to vote for their presidential candidate.

The likes of Awoniyi, Ogbeha, Melaye, Abenemin all have a great influence in Kogi West to ensure that the PDP maintains its winning streak.

However, the serving lawmaker representing Yagba Federal Constituency, Hon. Leke Abejide of the African Democratic Congress, ADC, may spring surprise for the APC presidential candidate in his constituency. Abejide is a strong loyalist of Tinubu, who has consistently in his re-election campaign to the House of Representatives, appealed to his supporters to re-elect him and vote Tinubu for president. Abejide, who chairs the House of Representatives Committee on Customs and Excise, in one of his reelection campaigns in Yagba Federal constituency said, “We are not mentioning APC in our (campaign) programme; we are only mentioning Tinubu, and that is the project I want to deliver. Whatever it is going to cost me, even if it is my mandate (re-election), I don’t mind”.

Voting Pattern In East

The voting pattern in the Eastern part of Kogi State may be a one-way traffic. While many from this ethnic group believe that the incumbent Governor Alhaji Yahaya Bello is not willing to relinquish power to another ethnic group after eight years, political pundits are of the view that the opposition PDP might have bloc votes for their presidential candidate, while Labour will also follow in the same part. The ruling APC has big names from this region. Deputy spokesperson of APC, Yakubu Murtala Ajaka, Senator Isah Echocho, Deputy Governor, David Onoja and many more are from the East and will be rooting for the APC Presidential Candidate, Tinubu, while former Kogi State Governor, Alhaji Ibrahim Idris, Capt. Idris Wada, Austin Okai, Victor Adoji, Senatorial Candidate for Kogi East Senatorial District will be on ground to maintain their political relevance in Kogi State by ensuring that the PDP candidate, Atiku, gets the desired votes.

Kogi Central Voting Pattern

It will be a case of no retreat no surrender in the Central Senatorial District. The power play between the candidate of PDP in Kogi Central Senatorial election, Natasha Akpoti and Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State will take the centre stage during the Presidential and National Assembly election. Natasha Akpoti has continued to gain sympathy from electorates in the zone, for being the only woman who stood firm to condemn some policies initiated by the Government in Kogi State. Her stand to ensure the total resuscitation of the Ajaokuta Steel Company in Kogi State and the failure of the Buhari Government to do it as promised in 2015 might work against the APC Presidential Candidate. While Governor Yahaya Bello will be rooting for his candidate, Engr. Abubakar Ohere to win the Central Senatorial election, the PDP candidate on the order hand will be expecting nothing less than victory for herself and her presidential candidate. Governor Bello and Natasha have been at loggerheads since 2019.

The PDP candidate had on different occasions accused the incumbent Governor of sponsoring violence, which the Governor through his aides has refuted. Despite Governor Bello-led APC getting bloc votes for the party in the 2019 election, the scenario may twist this time as the people of Kogi Central now have a divided loyalty for the APC and the PDP. The cold war between the Ohinoyi of Ebira land, HRM Dr Ado Ibrahim and Kogi State Governor, Alhaji Yahaye Bello might also work against the APC presidential candidate as loyalists to the monarch have vowed that the Governor’s candidate will not succeed at the poll.

Crack In APC

There is a cold war going on among members of the ruling APC. The party is divided into two camps in Kogi State. One camp is loyal to Governor Alhaji Yahaya Bello, while the other is loyal to the lawmaker from Lagos State, James Falake, who is Tinubu’s right hand man. The circumstances that brought Governor Yahaya Bello to power following the demise of Prince Abubakar Audu have continued to linger for over seven years. On several occasions, the Camp of Governor Bello has accused Faleke of anti-party activities in Kogi State.

Recently, a socio-political group, Kogi West Conscience, called on the national leadership of the APC to address the imminent crisis that will soon erupt in the party as a result of brazen anti-party activities.

In a statement signed by the group’s national president, Ademola Bakare, he said it is worrisome that the national secretary of the party’s presidential campaign council, James Faleke, is working against all candidates of APC in Kogi West, aside his political god-father, Senator Bola Tinubu who is flying the party’s presidential flag.

“It is no longer a secret that James Faleke only works for APC in Lagos and the party’s presidential candidate. We confidently submit that Faleke is working against Kogi Assembly Speaker, Prince Kolawole Matthew who is APC House of Reps candidate for Kabba/Bunu/Ijumu federal constituency. He has pitched his tent with the candidates of his ‘actual party’, African Democratic Congress (ADC) in the two federal constituencies in Okun land- Yagba and Kabba/Bunu/Ijumu.

“Last weekend, Faleke played host to APC stakeholders in Kogi West and to our surprise, he invited the House of Reps candidates of ADC, Leke Abejide and Idris Salman to the event. Not only did he invite them, he practically endorsed them in the presence of APC stakeholders.

“He didn’t hide his hatred for APC in Kogi West and made it clear that his sole interest is his god-father emerging president of the nation.

“It is important to note that APC lost all House of Reps seats in Kogi West in 2019 due to anti-party activities. We regained the senate seat through the doggedness of Governor Yahaya Bello and Senator Smart Adeyemi,” he said.

In a quick response, a Kogi based-socio-political group, Kogi West Agenda, said that no cheap propaganda can distract the Secretary of Tinubu/Shettima Presidential campaign council, Hon. James Faleke, from his determination to deliver Nigeria’s vote for Bola Tinubu and other candidates of the party.

The coordinator of the group, Arowolo Solomon, in a statement said: “The so-called anti-party only exists in the writer’s imagination and that of his sponsors. It is pertinent to state that if there is any anti-party or would be, Faleke cannot be a party to such distraction.

“This is surely the handiwork of the opposition who knows they will be defeated at the 2023 polls. The target is to distract the party and government in the country by sowing seeds of discord.

“APC as a family has come a long way and has worked very hard to maintain the number one position in the politics of the country, and will not allow any passenger to come in between.

“Let me use this medium to warn such fourth columnists that Faleke is an excellent politician who has always projected the goals of our party beyond personal interests and will do everything for the growth of the party. This tactic is so elementary that we could have ignored it but for record purposes.”

The decision of the APC to hold Adhoc delegates Congress on February 7, 2023, has also further thrown the APC into disarray