Nigeria’s oil production, including condensate, declined by 8.3 percent year-on-year to an average of 1.544 million barrels per day in December 2025, according to data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.
The figure represents a drop from the 1.684 million barrels per day recorded in December 2024, highlighting a continued slowdown in the country’s upstream oil sector.
The Commission did not specify the direct causes of the decline in its report released yesterday, but indications pointed to limited investment activity and production challenges across the industry.
On a month-on-month basis, Nigeria’s oil output also weakened, slipping to 1.544 million barrels per day in December 2025 from 1.599 million barrels per day recorded in November 2025.
The data showed that the country again failed to meet its production target under the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Of the total 1.544 million barrels per day recorded in December, 122,385 barrels per day were condensate, which is excluded from OPEC’s production quota calculations.
When condensate is removed, Nigeria’s crude oil output fell below the OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day allocated to the country for the period.
The production shortfall also meant that the federal government did not achieve its 2025 budget benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day.
The 2025 budget assumptions were based on an oil price of $75 per barrel and an exchange rate of about N1,500 to the dollar, making oil output a critical factor for revenue projections.
According to the NUPRC report, the lowest combined crude oil and condensate production during the period was 1.52 million barrels per day, while peak production reached 1.82 million barrels per day.
The Commission stated that average crude oil production accounted for about 95 percent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day.
It added that the daily average output stood at 1,544,345 barrels per day, comprising 1,421,960 barrels per day of crude oil and 122,385 barrels per day of condensate.
Further confirmation of the decline came from OPEC’s January 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report.
According to OPEC, Nigeria’s crude oil output, excluding condensate, declined marginally on a month-on-month basis to 1.422 million barrels per day in December 2025 from 1.436 million barrels per day in November 2025.
This represented a decrease of about 0.9 percent within the month, based on data obtained through direct communication with Nigerian authorities.
OPEC’s figures confirmed that Nigeria remained below its agreed production quota for the period.
On a year-on-year basis, OPEC data showed that Nigeria’s crude oil output dropped to 1.422 million barrels per day in December 2025, compared with 1.485 million barrels per day recorded in the corresponding period.
The sustained underperformance has raised concerns about the country’s ability to maximize oil revenues amid ongoing fiscal pressures.
Industry experts have attributed the production challenges to long-standing structural and governance issues within the oil and gas sector.
Speaking in a recent interview, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics and Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, Wumi Iledare, identified insecurity, declining field maturity, and weak investment incentives as major constraints to the industry.
He noted that Nigeria operates largely within a mature basin and has not made significant new discoveries capable of boosting output in recent years.
Iledare also pointed to the failure to regularly offer new hydrocarbon blocks for competitive bidding as a factor limiting future production growth.
According to him, persistent governance gaps and policy uncertainty continue to erode investor confidence in the sector.
He stressed that the selective implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act has worsened operational challenges and discouraged fresh capital inflows.
Iledare argued that Nigeria needs a clearly designated leader with strong institutional authority to drive reforms in the oil and gas sector.
He warned that relying on multiple proxy decision-makers has weakened coordination and accountability.
Reflecting on past performance, he said he could not recall the last time Nigeria consistently met its OPEC production quota, underscoring the depth of the country’s production challenges.
