Ibekimi Oriamaja Reports
Anthony Sani, the immediate past secretary-general of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), has predicted that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) will win the 2023 elections.
Sani’s forecast was based on what he called a “street politician’s” understanding.
He added that southern governors’ insistence on the next president visiting their region may work in favor of the APC and its presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu.
Though he noted that the Labour Party (LP) flagbearer, Peter Obi, is from the south and may receive some sympathy votes, the former ACF scribe maintained that Tinubu has a broader appeal and a better chance at the polls.
The elder statesman went on to say that because Obi and the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) candidate, Rabiu Kwankwaso, are ‘offshoots’ of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), they will further divide the votes that are expected to go to Atiku Abubakar.
“As I have stated several times, I am not a psychologist,” he said. However, as a “street politician,” I can make some predictions based on the dynamics in the political cockpit.
“Southern governors and their socio-political platforms have resolved to vote only for presidential candidates from the South on the grounds that it is the South’s turn to produce the president to succeed President Buhari.” The southern votes will be divided among the presidential candidates from the south, primarily between Bola Tinubu of the APC and Mr Peter Obi of the Labour Party.
“In the North, because the 15 APC governors largely caused Tinubu’s emergence in the primaries, there are reasons to believe the votes in the North will be shared among Tinubu of the APC, former PDP VP Atiku, and Kwankwaso of the NNPP.”
“And, given that both Peter Obi and Kwankwaso came from the PDP, their emergence has weakened the PDP’s position in the sumo ring.”
The PDP is at odds with itself.
Sani went on to say that the internal crisis threatening the PDP has dimmed the party’s chances of making a comeback in the 2023 elections.
He contended that the PDP crisis would ultimately benefit Tinubu and the APC.
“And when you factor in the lingering feuds in the PDP that cast doubt on the party’s claim to rescuing Nigeria at war with itself when the party cannot rescue itself from itself, and there is also the fear in some quarters that a president Peter Obi could play Gorbachev who presided over the collapse of the Soviet Union, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that it will be Tinubu who will most likely meet the constitutional requirements of majority votes and spread to the presidency,” he said.
He urged citizens to vote so that elected officials at all levels, including governors, could be held accountable to the people.
