APC, PDP: A day of decision

Between today and tomorrow, or by Monday, the two platforms should be presenting their candidates for next year’s poll to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the electorate.

Either of the two flagbearers will succeed President Muhammadu Buhari, whose tenure expires on May 29, 2023. But, while PDP is forging ahead, there is no sign of readiness on the part of the ruling party.

If PDP produces a candidate tomorrow and the APC candidate is nowhere to be found, it would mean that the APC forced the hand of the electoral commission to amend the electoral timetable.

Many factors will shape the contests. They include the credentials of aspirants, their structures, cross-regional support, experience and may be, capability. However, delegates are not captivated by the manifestos or programmes of action reeled out by aspirants. This should have been the core issue in a nation-state of despair. But, their preoccupation is money. It may therefore, be assumed that the greatest factor is the deep purse of the aspirants.

If one of the deciding factors at the primaries will not be manifestos echoed by last minute speeches of aspirants at the nomination convention, then, Nigeria will not be witnessing primaries of quality. The state of affairs underscores the level of political culture, the level of national development and the immaturity of the political system. The delegates have no independent opinion. The distribution is as follows in PDP: Northwest 193, Southwest 143, Northcentral 130, Southsouth 129, Northeast 116 and Southeast 100. It is curious that the Southeast, which has the least number of delegates, has the highest number of aspirants.

In APC, the Southwest has the highest number of contenders. They all belong to one political family. It means the region lacks a coordinated agenda. But, of the six from the Southwest, it appears only their leader has the chance of getting the ticket, if there will be no surprises.

Specifically, zoning remains a factor, but it depends on the relative capacity of contenders to manipulate ethnicity and religion, or frontally insist on the previous tradition of rotation that is being threatened by lack of consistency, insincerity and new strategy. The annulment of zoning was tantamount to a disregard for diversity, equity and justice. The result may be a fierce competition between the North and the South.

In the ruling party, the preference of the president may be a factor that will either make or mar the rocess. President Buhari once hinted about a preferred choice. His media adviser, Femi Adesina, also confirmed it. It is a big hurdle for the Commander-In-Chief and party leader, who may directly polarise his party and ultimately become a divisive factor at the primary. It appears the mood of the majority, including governors who are controllers of delegates from their states, may not favour consensus candidacy.

Those said to be banking on presidential endorsement are about eight. This has sparked a sort of sibling rivalry. The endorsement of any of them translates into preferential treatment, and ultimate rejection of other contenders who also claim to be loyal to the president.

Today’s exercise is a wide departure from past contests. It may be the most democratic primaries. All the delegates were elected in APC and PDP. Special delegates, commonly referred to as statutory delegates, will not participate, following the President’s refusal to sign the Electoral Act. Again, it worths repeating that the commoner-delegates, though democratically elected or selected, are in the pocket of the governors. The number of delegates has decreased considerately. The exercises may be manageable. There may be no waste of time.

The alpha and omega of the parties, including the president, former president, their deputies, governors, ministers, party officers and presidential aspirants, are not eligible to vote. The beautiful brides are the adhoc delegates from 774 local governments.

What was worrisome and confusing to many APC stakeholders during the week was the insinuation that three paper-weight aspirants had entered the race again through the back door. Nomination forms were obtained for former President Goodluck Jonathan, who repudiated the activities of certain overzealous supporters, who bought the form for him; Central Bank Governor Godwin Emefiele, who despite being rated as a political neophyte, promised to shock the nation, and African Development Bank (AFDB) President Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, who ran back while gazing at the furnace from afar.

If they ever submitted the forms, it was without public knowledge, because the party had told reporters in Abuja that only 25 aspirants returned the forms. If they participate at the primary, then, the exercise will be controversial. It is a crowded race in APC. The aspirants know their own strengths and weaknesses.

No APC aspirant has campaigned more than the great leader and mobiliser,

Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, national leader of APC. He has forged ahead with courage, resilience and determination. Ordinarily, he should have an edge as an experienced stalwart and one of the founding fathers of the party.

Tinubu has been traversing the chapters, selling himself. He started early. Delegates believe their national leader. His structure is solid and formidable. He has the name and recognition, having established himself as a bridge builder. Party men have a lot of testimonies to give about Tinubu’s sense of accommodation, tolerance, forgiving spirit and generosity. Many Nigerians remember with fondness the Tinubu years in Lagos State. As governor, he was a model. Therefore, he flaunts his credentials as a tested and trusted administrator, a visionary, a financial surgeon and man of mega capabilities. The eminent politician comes from the Southwest, which is the cradle and stronghold of the ruling party he had laboured to build along with President Buhari and other compatriots across the six zones. While he is expected to win resoundingly in his zone, he is also loved in the North. Despite his labours and fidelity to the APC, Tinubu may still have to work on few powerful, vested interests, who are against him without justification. Observers contend that the choice of a standard bearer will predict how far the APC can go in next year’s election. If the cabal tries to edge out a candidate that may easily garner popular votes, what magic can they perform on poll day? It will be useless to dump a popular candidate through intra-party manipulation, only for the manipulators to turn around again to seek for an inexplicable reconciliation after the primary, for the purpose of persuading the same aspirant they ignored at the shadow poll to lead the election campaign.

One of Tinubu’s opponents is Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, a professor of law he nominated in 2015, and who had served under his leadership as Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice. He has continually drew attention to being in the number two position in the last seven years, thereby gaining much experience. He has also acted as president.

But, Osinbajo’s structure is not strong. His political experience is not deep. In fact, the pursuit of presidential ambition marked his foray into partisan politics. The vice president is banking on being anointed by his boss. If he gets the ticket, he will need to work very hard to win the election. One thing that cannot be taken away from Osinbajo is his verbal facility. The vice president is vocal.

Minister of Transportation Rotimi Amaechi may not be as vocal as Osinbajo, but he is more politically experienced than the number two citizen. He has served as Speaker for eight years and governor for another eight year’s. A member of the second generation of leaders thrown up by the Fourth Republic, he is acknowledged in the APC as a rich chieftain, who made financial contributions to the 2015 campaigns.

However, Amaechi does not have base. He has failed to lead his his party to victory in Rivers. Thus, his succession plan failed in 2015 and 2019. Governor Nyesom Wike is trying to torment him by making some allegations about turbine. There is also a case in court.

Be that as it may, Amaechi can go to sleep over two ststes-Rivers and Plateau. It is risky for other aspirants to ignore him. He is too clever.

The entry of Senate President Ahmed Lawan into the race was a surprise. He is credited with a great deal of legislative experience spanning two decades. He may be relying on few who are projecting him. But, so far, Lawan has shown decorum, judging by his not-a-do-or-die style.

Some people are neck-deep in geo-political calculus. But, the underlying reason is devoid of logic. If the schemers say APC must pick a Northerner as presidential candidate because PDP may pick a Northerner, does that not mean that they are treating Southerners as fools? How can they justify the possibility of retaining the highest office in the North for 16 years?

The second Northern aspirant is Kogi State Governor Yahaya Bello, who has toiled for the party during the membership registration. His style is different. The young politician is campaigning as if he is preparing for a general election. He is also very popular in the media. Bello is reaching out to youths and women, who he described as the segments with greater numerical strength. Will they deliver him at the primary? Will be garner enormous political capital?

Since Senator Ibikunle Amosu declared for president at Abuja, much has not been heard about him. He was present when Ekiti State Governor Kayode Fayemi unfolded his plans at the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Fayemi returned the visit when the former governor unfolded his ambition.

While Fayemi, war scholar and former Steel and Solid Minerals Minister, has been visiting some chapters, former House of Representatives Speaker Dimeji Bankole has not been visible on campaign ground. Is he in the race for relevance?

Also, Emeka Nwajiuba, the only minister who had the courage to resign and earned the praise of Buhari, who booted others out for failing to toe the same line, is not involved in any effective campaign or delegate targeting.

Ebonyi State Governor Dave Umahi will surely pull more votes from delegates from his state than elderstatesman Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu. But, there ends the story.

The same applies to his Cross River counterpart, Senator Prof. Ben Ayade, a reluctant contestant who appeared to have applied for the job of campaign manager for Jonathan.

Up to the time of writing this piece, APC was still dillydallying about its presidential primary. There was no sign of an impending event at Eagle Square, Abuja. The planning committee and sub-committees were not in place. All preparations paled into day dreaming, except the planning can be done within 24 hours.

In PDP, there are 15 contenders. Eyes are on about four or five-former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Senate President Bukola Saraki, and governors of Sokoto, Bauchi and Rivers-Aminu Tambuwal, Senator Bala Mohammed and Nyesom Wike.

If the PDP governors agree to work together, it will be the end of the road for Atiku. But, their lack of agreement is to the advantage of the experienced politician and veteran presidential aspirant. At 76, it is believed that the contest may be his last chance. Therefore, the political warhorse is putting everything into it.

Atiku’s structure is not doubtful. He is a household name in Nigeria. He has networks, financial arsenal and wide connection. Majority of founding fathers and elders flock with Atiku. At a time, his former boss, Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo, devoted chapters to him in his book, calling him all sorts of name. He poured venom on his former ally. Four years later, OBJ started projecting him.

However, this time around, Atiku does not appear to be the candidate of the Generals, including Evil Genius Ibrahim Babangida, Abdulsalami Abubakar and Gusau. It appears they are tilting towards Saraki, Waziri of Ilorin.

Some analysts believe that Saraki cannot be underrated as a political warrior. He has contested twice. He had positioned himself very well in the period of crisis. As leader of the PDP reconciliation team, he used the opportunity to build structures and sell himself to the various chapters.

Will he attain the highest seat, which his illustrious father, Dr. Olusola Saraki, failed to attain? Time will tell. Ahead of the primary, Peter Obi crashed himself out. He had expected the party to stick to zoning. The neglect of rotation was infuriating to him. Therefore, he quit both the race and the party.

Obi is a man of reputation; frugal, morally clean as it were, and a wordsmith. But, he may have over-exergerrated his political worth and stature. Many expressed concern about his exit from the race, not because he can win the ticket, but because he is perceived as a good man. His absence may be a plus for Wike, who may now get the attention of Anambra delegates.

In fact, the Rivers governor has proved that he can rub shoulders with any contestant in PDP. He is very aggressive. A trend is emerging. The likelihood exists that governors of Rivers are potential presidential aspirants. Why? It is a rich state and the governors can flex muscles with the quantum of resources, to the envy of less-endowed states. Indeed, when observers paint a picture of naira and dollar war that may characterise the process, they have in mind the former vice president and governor of the oil-rich state.

In this electioneering, Wike is flaunting his score card as governor. Generally, it is believed that he has performed. He is also an experienced actor, having served as council chairman, chief of staff and minister.

Apart from his likely impressive showing in Benue, where his friend, Sam Ortom, calls the shots, Wike has tentacles in the Southwest, Southsouth and Southeast. But for his free use of words, he would have attracted more alliances. He is bold and brave. But, he is misunderstood as a political aggressor.

While Udom Emmanuel of Akwa Ibom will cart away delegate votes from his state, aspirants like Mohammed Hayatu-Deen, former Senate President Pius Anyim, publisher Dele Momodu and Sam Ohunabunwa may end up as venerable spectators at the primary.

PDP is ready. But, APC does not appear to be ready.