Qatar 2022: Saudi Arabia and Mexico brace for a showdown

The race to qualify from World Cup 2022 Group C is set to go down to the wire, as Saudi Arabia and Mexico prepare to face off at the Lusail Iconic Stadium on Wednesday.

With at least one of Argentina and Poland set to drop points in their top-two clash, all four teams are still in with a chance of advancing to the round of 16.

On November 22, 2022, Saudi Arabia’s Salem Al-Dawsari celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates.

According to Reuters

Herve Renard’s Saudi Arabia were brought crashing back down to earth at the weekend, falling from the highs of defeating tournament favourites Argentina to the lows of a 2-0 loss to Poland.

Wojciech Szczesny’s inspired performance helped Poland win, with the Juventus goalkeeper saving Salem Al-penalty Dawsari’s either side of goals from Piotr Zielinski and Robert Lewandowski, the latter’s first at the World Cup at the age of 34.

Despite dropping to third in Group C, Saudi Arabia’s fate remains in their own hands, as three points against Mexico would safely see them through to the knockout stages for only the second time, having reached the last 16 in 1994.

A draw might even suffice if Poland can do them a favor by beating Argentina by at least three goals, but a record of four wins in their last 19 matches in all competitions does not inspire confidence, nor does a 6% clean sheet ratio at the World Cup.

Meanwhile, Mexico learned the hard way over the weekend not to give Lionel Messi too much time and space on the edge of the box, as the seven-time Ballon d’Or winner set Argentina on their way to a pivotal 2-0 win, deepening their fellow Americans’ elimination concerns.

On November 22, 2022, Mexico’s Guillermo Ochoa celebrates after saving a penalty shot from Poland’s Robert Lewandowski.

According to Reuters

With 64 minutes remaining, Messi found the bottom corner before Benfica starlet Enzo Fernandez wrapped up the three points in style with a delightful curling effort, putting Mexico in real danger of breaking their magnificent streak of top-two finishes.

El Tri has advanced to the knockout stages of every World Cup since 1994 and has not been eliminated in the group stage since 1978, but Gerardo Martino’s side must simply win and hope that the scoreline and/or goals in Poland’s match with Argentina go in their favor.

Given their significantly lower goal difference, Mexico would need to defeat Saudi Arabia by a four-goal margin if Poland and Argentina draw, and a five-goal swing in their favor if Argentina defeats their European counterparts.

Alternatively, Mexico will advance if they win and Poland defeats Argentina, but they have done themselves no favors by failing to score in the 2022 edition thus far – only Tunisia has posted zero goals out of all the sides to have played two games so far.

Mexico can take solace in the fact that they have a strong record of four wins and one draw in five meetings with Saudi Arabia, but the most recent of those was in 1999, and Renard’s side should fear no foe in their bid for a much-coveted top-two finish.