Whither the Third Force?

OLALEKAN OSIADE reports on how hope for a coalition that could have swayed Nigerians from the two established political parties – All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) – was dashed

In the wake of the electioneering campaign, there was much hue and cry on the need for Nigerians to do away with the two major political parties that had governed the country in its 20 years of civil rule, having been in power since the return of democratic rule in 1999.
The reasons for this were not farfetched; Nigerians are not known to be too impatient when tired of a system and in dire need of a change. This was what played out in 2015, when the then opposition party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) uprooted the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) out of power to become the ruling party.
Though the APC had not been in power for long, having been in the saddle for just four years as against the PDP that ruled for 16 years, many Nigerians have been clamouring for a paradigm shift, irrespective of the party in power and the number of years it has spent.
While some were blaming the 16 years rule of the PDP for the woes of the country, others were quick to point accusing fingers at the APC, alleging the broom-symbol party of not living up to the change mantra with which it rode to power.
With allegations of dismal performances by both parties, many were hoodwinked with the notion that the two giant parties are different sides of same coin. This perception forced many Nigerians to seek a fresh option that could take power away from the two giants, hence the need for a third force.
Alliances were hurriedly formed and many big names were flaunted in the hope that justice would be done to the yearnings and aspirations of the people. Expectations were high as to who the presidential candidate of the third force would be, and some established powers were quick to latch on to the situation, given the impression of a new dawn.
Amid the expectations was the visit of the French president, Emmanuel Macron, who many had used as the yardstick for a new beginning. It was argued that a third force could put Nigeria in the mould of France, judging by the Macron’s mode of ascension to his country’s presidency.
Using the example of how Macron had raised a third force and pulled out of a federal cabinet to emerge the youngest president of his country, there was renewed hope in the system and the social media went agog, with Nigerians throwing up names of individuals that could perform the magic.
In a twinkle of an eye, alliances and new parties began to emerge, with no less a caliber of person than former President Olusegun Obasanjo leading the first set of coalition under the aegis of Coalition of Nigeria Movement (CNM).
Obasanjo was able to galvanise his loyalists, including a former governor of Osun State, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola into a formidable union. The group wasted no time in rallying like minds and political parties such as the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
At the inauguration of the CNM, Obasanjo canvassed for a movement that is not necessarily a political party from the outset, but could later take the form of a political party and lead the country out the woods. He particularly promised to be part of the struggle for the rebirth of a new Nigeria.
“We need a coalition for Nigeria, such a movement at this juncture needs not be a political party, but one to which all well-meaning Nigerians can belong. That movement must be a coalition for democracy, good governance, social and economic well-being and progress, a coalition to salvage and redeem our country. You can count me with such a movement,” he said.
Hardly had the Obasanjo coalition took off than another group, the Nigerian Intervention Movement (NIM), led by a former President of the Nigeria Bar Association (NBA), Olisa Agbakoba, appeared on the scene.
Seeing Agbakoba in company with a former governor of the Central Bank, Prof. Charles Soludo; Prof. Pat Utomi, Oby Ezekwesili, Ayo Obe, Col. Abubakar Umar (rtd) and Comrade Isa Aremu, among others, the assurances were high even as Agbakoba had raised the hopes of many after being named the leader of the group that what was seen as the new opposition force.
This led to series of merger talks as political permutations began to change and people began to form alliances, even as INEC continued to register more political parties.
The CNM later announced its fusion with the ADC as a political party on which its members would contest the general elections, assuring that the coalition would rescue Nigeria, not minding the inconveniences and other consequences.
While announcing the collapse of the CNM into the ADC, Oyinlola said: “The current state of despair and despondency in our dear country is an ill wind. The CNM was formed by some of us across the country as a political platform to create a new generation of leaders. A lot of grounds had been covered in achieving the set goals,” Oyinlola said.
With over 90 political parties, hope that had been dashed seemed to be raised and those that had lost faith in the electoral process and earlier resigned to fate, having caught between the proverbial “devil and the deep blue sea,” suddenly reawakened their interests, in the belief that a third force is on the way to redeem the situation.
With the array of political parties and the stalwarts lined up for the coalition, Nigerians had thought that the 2019 elections would be a walkover for the third force. But no sooner had the coalition taken off that the hiccups that may thwart its efforts began to show.
The third force, which could have functioned as a counterbalancing power to neutralize the influence of the established powers; quickly ran into stormy waters, when it seemed that Nigerians were trapped between the devil and the deep blue sea. Many of these politicians and technocrats who many had relied upon to do the needful began to sing discordant tunes.
Of note is the tactical approach with which Obasanjo made a U-turn, abandoning his CNM and endorsing his erstwhile deputy and the candidate of the PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. This was the first indication of the “demise” of the third force.
Soon afterwards, the younger elements refused to work together and failed in presenting a cnsensus candidate between Omoyele Sowore, Kingsley Moghalu, Fela Durotoye and Oby Ezekwesili, among others. This hard line posture is the second indication that seemed to show that the latter day politicians have dealt a huge blow to the emerging third force.
Though Nobel Laureate, Prof. Wole Soyinka, tried to remedy the situation with his Citizens Forum adoption of Moghalu, it appeared that the action of the octogenarian playwright is too late to do the magic intended as many had been caught in the bug of APC and PDP.
The gale of endorsements trailing the candidature of the two major players, President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC and Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, show that many Nigerians have taken solace in the old saying; “if you can’t beat them, join them.”
To add insult to the injury, one of those that were hitherto tipped to lead the third force, Ezekwesili, withdrew from the race citing non-cooperative stance of her party’s leadership though she promised to channel her energy towards the election bid of anyone chosen as the coalition candidate.
In the same vein, another member of the contending forces, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) fell into crisis as the duo of a former Minister of Information, Prof Jerry Gana and a former governor of Cross River State, Donald Duke, took the battle for the presidential ticket of the party to the court room.
The dust was yet to settle on the court matters when the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the SDP threw its weight behind Buhari’s candidacy, putting a seal on the emergence of the SDP as a strong unit that could midwife the third force.
Earlier, the ADC had joined forces with some other parties to form the CUPP, which adopted Atiku as its consensus candidate. As such, the assumption that NIM, CNM, ADC and SDP would merge as the third force ahead of the presidential has gradually fizzled out.
Just few days to the historic polls, the possibility of any alliance or merger coming up as third force has thinned, and again, just like it happened in 2015, the main contenders for the elections remain PDP and APC.
With the decline of the units that could have made up the third force, and with some of them grappling with various problems, ranging from factionalisation, defections and troubled leadership, not a few pundits are saying that the third force had gone to bed till 2023.