Fresh political tremors are rocking Kano State as indications emerge that Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso may have quietly abandoned former APC governorship candidate Nasir Yusuf Gawuna in favour of ex-deputy governor Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo ahead of the 2027 elections.
This development, described by insiders as a “major realignment within the Kwankwasiyya movement,” follows a wave of defections and counter-defections that have upended the political landscape in Kano State.
Gawuna’s gamble backfires?
Gawuna, who was deputy governor under Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and the APC’s 2023 governorship candidate, recently dumped the ruling party for the African Democratic Congress (ADC). His move was widely seen as a strategic attempt to secure Kwankwaso’s backing after his path to the APC ticket was effectively blocked.
The emergence of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf as the undisputed leader of the APC in Kano, following his controversial defection and alliance with Ganduje, reportedly came with an agreement guaranteeing him an automatic return ticket. That arrangement forced several aspirants, including Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin, to step down, leaving Gawuna politically stranded.
Despite resigning from his federal appointment and pledging loyalty to Kwankwaso at a recent ADC gathering, insiders say his efforts may have come too late.
Insider reveals Kwankwasiyya’s stance
A top source within the Kwankwasiyya camp told Politics Digest that Gawuna’s acceptance within the movement remains deeply limited.
“Almost 90 percent of Kwankwasiyya people are not supporting Gawuna. They see him as an opportunist who relies on godfathers rather than building his own structure,” the source disclosed.
According to the insider, Gawuna’s support base is largely driven by disgruntled business elites who have fallen out with Governor Yusuf and are seeking influence through a new political vehicle.
“They brought Gawuna to Kwankwaso so they can benefit from his government if he becomes governor. But the grassroots do not trust him,” the source added.
Gwarzo emerges as preferred choice
In contrast, Gwarzo, who resigned as deputy governor after Yusuf aligned with Ganduje – is gaining momentum as the preferred candidate of the Kwankwasiyya base.
Party loyalists, popularly known as the “red cap movement,” are said to overwhelmingly favour Gwarzo due to his perceived loyalty and ideological alignment with Kwankwaso’s political philosophy.
Multiple sources point to Kwankwaso’s “body language” as increasingly tilting toward Gwarzo, a move aimed at preserving unity within his core political structure.
A third force complicates permutations
However, the race is far from settled. Another strong contender, Ibrahim Ali Amin, popularly known as “Ibrahim Little,” is emerging as a formidable force within the ADC.
Unlike Gawuna, Amin is said to have built an extensive grassroots network across local governments and has already set up a campaign council.
“From his body language, he is not going to accept any consensus arrangement. It must be party primaries,” the insider revealed.
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His insistence on due process threatens any backroom deal that could impose a consensus candidate.
Kwankwaso’s next move
Amid the unfolding drama, there are growing speculations that Kwankwaso himself may not remain in the ADC for long. Sources suggest he could pivot to the People’s Redemption Party (PRP) as he weighs another presidential bid, possibly in alignment talks involving Peter Obi.
Analysts say such a move could further complicate Kano’s already volatile political equation, especially if it reshapes alliances at both state and national levels.
Uncertain road to 2027
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With shifting loyalties, internal distrust, and competing ambitions, Kano is shaping up to be one of the fiercest political battlegrounds ahead of 2027.
For now, while Gawuna’s defection was meant to reposition him, emerging signals suggest that the political ground beneath him may be far less stable than anticipated, while Gwarzo quietly consolidates support where it matters most: within the Kwankwasiyya base.
